Among the series of apply questions we answered as students of political science during my post graduate studies, was if the 2015 general election would be a watershed in the development of Nigeria’s democracy.
With our inadequate intellectual resources and an amateur sense of understanding of the nation’s politicking and analysis, only God knows how embarrassing our lecturers most have felt while marking our papers on that subject.
However, I believe there is no better time to ask and answer that question than now, the 2023 general election, if for any reason, the new trends and changes that defines the election with different forces in play.
Amidst all the tension, drama, expectations and other socio-political happenings between last and this week, Nigeria has witnessed one, if not the most interesting presidential election in the history of its democracy.
It is interesting because of several expected and unexpected turn of events that characterized the whole exercise.
However, while the turnout of voters was expected to be higher than they seemed because the election was marred by tough clashes of interest from voters instigated by regionalism, ethno-religious bigotry and above all political party differences, there were no shortage of political muscles flexing and arguably, the tightest presidential election in the country.
The expectations for big numbers were also understandable due to the fact that the contest this time, was a four-horse-race, unlike in previous elections when only two super powers wrestle their ways to the villa.
Among other dramatic outings in the elections, and perhaps one of the most interesting and important talking point is failure by major political gladiators to influence reasonable impact while scavenging for votes for their camps at their domain, especially state governors, who on a normal playing field play god with voters’ directions and results.
While the current president couldn’t secure the majority votes for his successor in his hometown, we have seen how the candidate himself, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, lost in Lagos State where he is a former two time governor, ultimately his assumed major stronghold, and also, having his former commissioner as the incumbent vice president.
APC losing grounds to PDP in Yobe State, a prescribed ‘one party’ state under the watch of the party’s iroko, incumbent Governor Mai Mala Buni, who few years ago almost succeeded in baptizing the whole nation into the APC covenant, is but another major episode in the election. This happened even after the strongest PDP force in the state, Sen. Mohammed Hassan Dambu already received the clarion call of Buni.
This story is not dissimilar with what transpired in Gombe, Kano, Benue, Rivers and other states, to a lesser account, local government areas and polling units of top votes merchants, and finally the nation’s capital Abuja, not winning it for the ruling party.
The unavailability and lower cash flow in the country is an important force that gave birth to these events. It has dwarfed some politician’s strategy, who usually depends on monetizing votes to achieved political ends. Until this election, vote buying before and during polls is the other of the day in typical Nigeria’s election, therefore forcing voters to vote against their will for mere peanuts.
Before they re-strategized and resort to other manipulative means, this period has at least given Nigerians the free will to think, scrutinize and chose candidates before thumbing on the ballot paper. It is also informed the voters how powerful their votes can be in directing the future of the country.
Also, the technological advancement and shift from local to the e-election has dramatical changed voters’ behaviors and election outcomes. This development has ended or at least minimized drastically the act of manipulations and cohesion in voting through the use of political thugs, who in some cases unleashed terror on voters and launch attacks on election officials to cate away with ballot boxes.
Upon all these events, one thing was certain, Nigerians have exercised their free rights to choose their leaders without the intimidation and influence of external forces.
It is the first time that voters come out to vote for their preferred candidate notwithstanding the party flag he/she is waving. There was a popular argument before the election, that two major contenders, Peter Obi of Labor Party (LP) and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) cannot win or pull reasonable votes due to their inadequate and weak party structures.
But, while the results we have seen suggest the logic of the former point, the same cannot be said for the latter because the numbers they polled sends a contrary signal.
It is reasonable to assume that most of these voters had voted with the slight conviction that their votes will ensure victory for their candidate, and yet they exercised their right as free men, as champions of democracy.
Well, some might say it is a waste of vote but a true democrat should believe that it is the forces of democracy in action. The forces that say everything with government is of, (ownership) for (purpose) and by (process) the people.
Now comes the winner of the presidential election, a ticket runed by candidates of the same faith, the Muslim-Muslim ticket.
That combination, although not alien, seemed unbelievable to pull victory until it happened.
Just like Peter Obi enjoyed in the south, several popular religious leaders in the north had publicly campaigned for the PDP candidate at the eve of the election and despite their millions of followers, APC still sweeps the majority votes in the region.
These voters have suggested to the future that the institution of voters control and votes enterprise is but an illusion, that it can be resisted, bypassed and crumbled and the owners and pullers of the strings disowned.
Rather than party followership, it has also awakened the spirit of leaders’ instead.
I therefore submit that it is not illogical to put the notion straight that for the records, the 2023 presidential election is the most democratic exercise that ever happened in the country.
While APC continue to party in jubilation and the opposition parties resorting to the usual blame games and rejection of results among other banters, we already had our winners before the declaration of the winner, the voters that came out to vote on February 25, the true champions of democracy, are the winners of this election and congratulations to them.
Neither the political parties, geographical locations, religion and forces, but democracy has won….and for if this election is the answer to our lecturers’ question, I already graduated, is not my problem anymore…lol
Sadiq Abubakar, Journalist and Political Scientist, writes from Maiduguri. Ahmuhammad123@yahoo.com
March, 2023
